BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wrentit In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestGeneralists

Wrentit in Northern Pacific Rainforest has fallen sharply: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-74%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wrentit has fallen sharply in Northern Pacific Rainforest: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wrentit in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 36% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.86 (95% range 0.00–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-36%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.86Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wrentit in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 36% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.86 (95% range 0.00–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.002.9
20261.00.002.8
20270.980.002.8
20280.920.002.7
20290.860.002.6

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Wrentit in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Big FlatCALIFORNIA292014
French GulchCALIFORNIA222011
ElktonOREGON222024
Fish RockCALIFORNIA212014
FisherOREGON182010
CoquilleOREGON162024
Klickitat MtOREGON151996
HolmesCALIFORNIA142024
UkiahCALIFORNIA122011
Mt ShastaCALIFORNIA112019
Redwood N.P.CALIFORNIA112010
Hay ForkCALIFORNIA102010
HoneydewCALIFORNIA82017
UmpquaOREGON82024
Crescent CtyCALIFORNIA72024
Bodega BayCALIFORNIA72021
Hazel CampOREGON72022
HiouchiCALIFORNIA62014
GlasgowOREGON62024
HullvilleCALIFORNIA52019
NavarroCALIFORNIA52011
LaytonvilleCALIFORNIA52024
Ship Mtn.CALIFORNIA52017
HauserOREGON51985
WedderburnOREGON52024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.