BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauGeneralists

Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay in Edwards Plateau has surged: up 92% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+92%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay has surged in Edwards Plateau: up 92% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 87% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.22–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±117.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+87%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.22–5.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±117.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 87% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.22–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±117.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.60.175.1
20262.60.185.1
20272.70.195.1
20282.70.205.1
20292.70.225.2

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FitzhughTEXAS81983
Indian MtnTEXAS82024
Allen CreekTEXAS52024
BoerneTEXAS42023
Dripping SpgTEXAS42024
LeakeyTEXAS42024
PidcokeTEXAS21996
MontellTEXAS22013
RockspringTEXAS22023
UtopiaTEXAS12022
HarperTEXAS12022
San SabaTEXAS12024
KempnerTEXAS12017
LeanderTEXAS12006
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.