BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wood Duck In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaWaterfowl

Wood Duck in Peninsular Florida has collapsed: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-87%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Duck has collapsed in Peninsular Florida: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Wood Duck In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.00–0.88). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±318.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.19Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±318.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.00–0.88). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±318.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.250.000.94
20260.240.000.93
20270.220.000.91
20280.210.000.90
20290.190.000.88

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Wood Duck in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wildernes PkFLORIDA92014
KenansvilleFLORIDA71998
PalmdaleFLORIDA72004
GardnerFLORIDA61999
ScottsmoorFLORIDA52024
Lake BuffumFLORIDA52021
CrewsvilleFLORIDA52000
Dale MabryFLORIDA41987
Ft LonesomeFLORIDA42008
PinecrestFLORIDA41974
NobletonFLORIDA42016
SandyFLORIDA42006
Island GroveFLORIDA42021
Mabel 2FLORIDA42017
BelmoreFLORIDA32022
ChildsFLORIDA32021
KissimmeeFLORIDA32014
Mt. OliveFLORIDA32012
Green SwampFLORIDA32011
MicanopyFLORIDA21978
MabelFLORIDA22011
AlturasFLORIDA21986
AndytownFLORIDA21983
DeanvilleFLORIDA22016
Pleasant GrFLORIDA22007

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.