BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wood Duck In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastWaterfowl

Wood Duck in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has surged: up 266% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+266%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
135Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Duck has surged in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 266% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Wood Duck In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 0.90 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.68 (95% range 0.39–0.96). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.68Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.39–0.9695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 0.90 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.68 (95% range 0.39–0.96). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.650.360.94
20260.650.360.94
20270.660.370.95
20280.670.380.96
20290.680.390.96

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Wood Duck in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BrandonVIRGINIA322024
Piney NeckMARYLAND122023
WarrenCONNECTICUT112011
NottinghamMARYLAND112022
RooseveltNEW-JERSEY91986
HongaMARYLAND82024
MadisonMARYLAND82024
PrattvilleMASSACHUSETTS61977
BelchertownMASSACHUSETTS62022
S BarreMASSACHUSETTS62024
LargoMARYLAND51978
SharpsVIRGINIA52006
HughesvilleMARYLAND42001
BerlinMARYLAND42005
DoverNEW-HAMPSHIRE42008
AncoraNEW-JERSEY41968
Spraguetown 2NEW-JERSEY42007
E HartlandCONNECTICUT31979
Mid HaddamCONNECTICUT32023
HarringtonDELAWARE32024
FredericaDELAWARE32009
La PlataMARYLAND31981
NewarkMARYLAND32004
Forest GroveMARYLAND32014
IndiantownMARYLAND32014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.