BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wood Duck In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsWaterfowl

Wood Duck in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 168% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+168%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
129Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Duck has surged in Central Hardwoods: up 168% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Wood Duck In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 63% by 2029 — from 0.31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.51 (95% range 0.09–0.93). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+63%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.51Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–0.9395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±69.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 63% by 2029 — from 0.31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.51 (95% range 0.09–0.93). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.500.080.92
20260.500.090.92
20270.500.090.92
20280.510.090.92
20290.510.090.93

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Wood Duck in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MincyMISSOURI102024
Buena VistaKENTUCKY82017
MorganfieldKENTUCKY82024
Lewis ForestTENNESSEE82019
Lebanon JunctionKENTUCKY72010
PeytonsvilleTENNESSEE72021
GlenTENNESSEE72023
East UnionKENTUCKY62022
Million 2KENTUCKY62019
PimentoINDIANA52022
Sulphur LickKENTUCKY52023
McbrayerKENTUCKY51986
WhitewaterMISSOURI52014
Valhermoso SpgsALABAMA42008
BelmontINDIANA42001
DixieKENTUCKY41983
BennettMISSOURI42024
BarksMISSOURI42012
BelknapILLINOIS32023
EvansvilleINDIANA32006
MillionKENTUCKY31981
GoshenKENTUCKY31990
SwedenMISSOURI32016
WescoMISSOURI31988
MarshfieldMISSOURI32017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.