BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wood Duck In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieWaterfowl

Wood Duck in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 78% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+78%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
243Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Duck has surged in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 78% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Wood Duck In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 33% by 2029 — from 0.45 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.60 (95% range 0.29–0.90). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+33%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.60Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.29–0.9095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 33% by 2029 — from 0.45 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.60 (95% range 0.29–0.90). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.580.270.88
20260.580.280.89
20270.590.280.89
20280.590.290.90
20290.600.290.90

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Wood Duck in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FairburyILLINOIS92024
OlsburgKANSAS92022
StillwellILLINOIS82017
SticklervillMISSOURI82024
AtkinsonILLINOIS71999
DecaturINDIANA72016
Witts StationINDIANA72024
MillwoodMISSOURI72016
FairlandILLINOIS62023
MuncieINDIANA61993
JamestownINDIANA62023
NorborneMISSOURI62018
KeetonvilleOKLAHOMA62012
EssexILLINOIS51995
Troy GroveILLINOIS52015
SwayzeeINDIANA52019
BrookvilleINDIANA52024
PlainfieldINDIANA51999
LakevilleMINNESOTA52019
New HamptonMISSOURI52023
KalidaOHIO52018
StreatorILLINOIS42022
GulfportILLINOIS42023
SenecaILLINOIS42021
ClaytonILLINOIS42019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.