BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wood Duck In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesWaterfowl

Wood Duck in Northern Rockies has surged: up 144% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

+144%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Duck has surged in Northern Rockies: up 144% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.01–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.01–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.100.010.19
20260.100.010.19
20270.100.010.19
20280.100.010.20
20290.110.010.20

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Wood Duck in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NaplesIDAHO102024
OttoWYOMING52008
Painted RockMONTANA31998
BurgdorfIDAHO22003
FeathervilleIDAHO22009
AugustaMONTANA22011
ClintonMONTANA22008
NoxonMONTANA21998
Willow Creek 2MONTANA21994
CusickWASHINGTON22024
L Pend O NwrWASHINGTON22024
ClarkWYOMING22000
LayCOLORADO12004
MivodenIDAHO12007
CentervilleIDAHO12006
CabartonIDAHO12003
Libby DamMONTANA12000
KalispellMONTANA12015
St RegisMONTANA12000
ArleeMONTANA11987
EllistonMONTANA12009
LaurelMONTANA12010
NinemileMONTANA12005
GlenMONTANA12024
PhilipsburgMONTANA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.