BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Winter Wren In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Winter Wren in Prairie Hardwood Transition has edged down: down 17% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-17%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Winter Wren in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Winter Wren In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Winter Wren in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Winter Wren in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.000.07
20260.030.000.07
20270.020.000.07
20280.020.000.07
20290.020.000.07

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Winter Wren in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
EsdaileWISCONSIN31975
Wis RapidsWISCONSIN22022
CascoWISCONSIN22023
ScottvilleMICHIGAN12023
Big RapidsMICHIGAN11988
RemusMICHIGAN12023
HungerfordMICHIGAN12017
Money CreekMINNESOTA11975
LoraineWISCONSIN11979
CumberlandWISCONSIN11998
WeyerhauserWISCONSIN11995
HolwayWISCONSIN11976
MerrillWISCONSIN12024
UnityWISCONSIN11975
MatherWISCONSIN12000
ElderonWISCONSIN11999
ManawaWISCONSIN12005
Oconto FallsWISCONSIN12022
ClintonvilleWISCONSIN11988
ManitowocWISCONSIN12019
N FreedomWISCONSIN11997
StetsonvilleWISCONSIN11991
GreshamWISCONSIN12018
GrimmsWISCONSIN12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.