BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Willow Flycatcher In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesAerial insectivores

Willow Flycatcher in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 144% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+144%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Willow Flycatcher has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 144% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 1.4–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 1.4–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.81.32.2
20261.81.32.3
20271.81.32.3
20281.81.42.3
20291.81.42.3

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Willow Flycatcher in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Douglas CrkNORTH-DAKOTA172024
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA122024
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA122024
ReganNORTH-DAKOTA102022
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA92024
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA82024
BrittonSOUTH-DAKOTA82023
ParshallNORTH-DAKOTA72013
BroadlandSOUTH-DAKOTA62014
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA52024
BraddockNORTH-DAKOTA52022
GlyndonMINNESOTA42024
TracyMINNESOTA42024
SydneyNORTH-DAKOTA41983
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA42022
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA42024
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA42011
LaneSOUTH-DAKOTA41999
GettysburgSOUTH-DAKOTA42023
AppletonMINNESOTA32023
ClevelandMONTANA31995
WestbyMONTANA32023
PoncaNEBRASKA32019
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA32024
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.