BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-tailed Hawk Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

White-tailed Hawk in Texas has surged: up 193% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+193%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-tailed Hawk Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-tailed Hawk has surged in Texas: up 193% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

White-tailed Hawk Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, White-tailed Hawk in Texas is projected to rise about 33% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.08–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±118.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+33%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.08–0.2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±118.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-tailed Hawk in Texas is projected to rise about 33% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.08–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±118.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.150.070.24
20260.160.070.24
20270.160.080.24
20280.160.080.25
20290.160.080.25

White-tailed Hawk Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording White-tailed Hawk in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Indianola520241983
Padre Island Pais420152015
George West419901990
Lag Atascosa320242009
Sejita320242010
Hinkles Fer220241978
Loyola Beach 2220232010
Rock Island220241991
Loyola Beach220091994
Moon Lake220052003
Mount Zion220181995
Guerra219901990
San Pedro220231996
Rachal120231972
Agua Nueva120231980
Kingsville120241976
Petronila120181976
Randado120231968
L. Atascosa Nwr120231998
Goliad Prairie120162004
Mcfaddin120142014
Campbellton120182018
Winnie120232013
Stowell120012001
Danbury120012001

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.