BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-faced Ibis In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWetland birds

White-faced Ibis in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 21× on the route-weighted index since 2000.

21×Since 2000TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
21YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-faced Ibis has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 21× on the route-weighted index since 2000.

White-faced Ibis In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-faced Ibis in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.49 (95% range 0.17–0.81). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.49Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.17–0.8195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-faced Ibis in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.49 (95% range 0.17–0.81). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19982029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.420.100.74
20260.440.120.76
20270.460.140.78
20280.470.150.79
20290.490.170.81

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording White-faced Ibis in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA182008
StanleyNORTH-DAKOTA142024
Great FallsMONTANA122019
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA102024
TurtonSOUTH-DAKOTA72007
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA52024
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA42023
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA32021
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA32024
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA32016
Crow CreekSOUTH-DAKOTA32023
Ester LakeMONTANA22019
FormanNORTH-DAKOTA22023
WimbledonNORTH-DAKOTA22021
WebsterNORTH-DAKOTA22014
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA12021
NilesNORTH-DAKOTA12024
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA12024
BraddockNORTH-DAKOTA12019
MontpelierNORTH-DAKOTA12024
BroadlandSOUTH-DAKOTA12013
BrittonSOUTH-DAKOTA12021
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA12024
GettysburgSOUTH-DAKOTA12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.