BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

White-faced Ibis In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWetland birds

White-faced Ibis in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 31× on the route-weighted index since 2000.

31×Since 2000TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for White-faced Ibis in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

White-faced Ibis In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-faced Ibis in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 51% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.70 (95% range 0.19–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-51%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.70Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.19–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-faced Ibis in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 51% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.70 (95% range 0.19–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19982030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.600.091.1
20270.630.121.1
20280.650.141.2
20290.680.171.2
20300.700.191.2

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording White-faced Ibis in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA852025
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA182008
StanleyNORTH-DAKOTA142024
Great FallsMONTANA122019
VirgelleMONTANA92025
TurtonSOUTH-DAKOTA72007
NilesNORTH-DAKOTA62025
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA42023
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA32021
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA32024
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA32016
MontpelierNORTH-DAKOTA32025
Crow CreekSOUTH-DAKOTA32023
Ester LakeMONTANA22019
FormanNORTH-DAKOTA22023
WimbledonNORTH-DAKOTA22021
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA22025
WebsterNORTH-DAKOTA22014
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA12021
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA12024
Powers LakeNORTH-DAKOTA12025
BraddockNORTH-DAKOTA12023
BroadlandSOUTH-DAKOTA12013
BrittonSOUTH-DAKOTA12021
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.