BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-breasted Nuthatch In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in Northern Pacific Rainforest has fallen sharply: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-64%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-breasted Nuthatch has fallen sharply in Northern Pacific Rainforest: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 59% by 2029 — from 0.47 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.00–0.63). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-59%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.19Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 59% by 2029 — from 0.47 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.00–0.63). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.250.000.68
20260.230.000.67
20270.220.000.65
20280.210.000.64
20290.190.000.63

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
McminnvilleOREGON92014
Shasta LakeCALIFORNIA82024
French GulchCALIFORNIA72010
AlderpointCALIFORNIA62012
Burnt RanchCALIFORNIA62016
Hay ForkCALIFORNIA62017
GazelleCALIFORNIA62021
Emigrant Lake 2OREGON62024
SalemOREGON62024
UmpquaOREGON42024
YrekaCALIFORNIA32015
AdairOREGON32023
DaytonOREGON32023
ElktonOREGON32024
Secret ValOREGON32022
GreenOREGON32024
Horse CreekCALIFORNIA22016
HullvilleCALIFORNIA22018
LongvaleCALIFORNIA22023
Bodega BayCALIFORNIA22015
DirigioCALIFORNIA22007
South Fork MtnCALIFORNIA22021
Emigrant LkOREGON22001
Sams ValleyOREGON22024
HoneydewCALIFORNIA11980

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.