BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-breasted Nuthatch In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in Sierra Madre Occidental has surged: up 120% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+120%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Sierra Madre Occidental: up 120% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 70% by 2029 — from 3.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.0 (95% range 3.3–8.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+70%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.3–8.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 70% by 2029 — from 3.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.0 (95% range 3.3–8.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.83.08.6
20265.93.18.7
20275.93.28.7
20286.03.28.8
20296.03.38.8

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ReserveNEW-MEXICO332023
Happy JackARIZONA302024
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA232021
PinetopARIZONA222022
WilliamsARIZONA182019
PrescottARIZONA172022
SprucedaleARIZONA152023
PatagoniaARIZONA112024
Forest LakesARIZONA92024
Aztec PeakARIZONA61978
RuckerARIZONA62009
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO62024
FlagstaffARIZONA52022
AlpineARIZONA52023
PortalARIZONA52024
Mormon LakeARIZONA31975
BlueARIZONA31990
SunizonaARIZONA31997
Mt. GrahamARIZONA32023
Carr MtnARIZONA32024
Sunizona 2ARIZONA32022
PomereneARIZONA11995
Peña BlancaARIZONA12023
MaineARIZONA12023
Skull ValleyARIZONA12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.