BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

White-breasted Nuthatch In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in Sierra Madre Occidental has surged: up 187% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+187%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Sierra Madre Occidental: up 187% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

White-breasted Nuthatch In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 8.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.3 (95% range 3.5–9.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.5–9.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 8.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.3 (95% range 3.5–9.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.03.28.9
20276.13.38.9
20286.23.49.0
20296.23.49.0
20306.33.59.1

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA412025
ReserveNEW-MEXICO332025
Happy JackARIZONA272025
PinetopARIZONA222022
WilliamsARIZONA202025
SprucedaleARIZONA182025
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO172025
Mt. GrahamARIZONA142025
PortalARIZONA132025
PatagoniaARIZONA112025
AlpineARIZONA82025
Aztec PeakARIZONA61978
RuckerARIZONA62009
FlagstaffARIZONA42025
PrescottARIZONA42025
Mormon LakeARIZONA31975
BlueARIZONA31990
SunizonaARIZONA31997
Carr MtnARIZONA32025
MaineARIZONA22025
Forest LakesARIZONA22025
PomereneARIZONA11995
Peña BlancaARIZONA12023
Skull ValleyARIZONA12019
Skull Valley 2ARIZONA12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.