BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-breasted Nuthatch In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has increased: up 38% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

+38%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for White-breasted Nuthatch in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±133.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±133.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±133.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.130.000.26
20260.130.000.26
20270.130.000.27
20280.130.000.27
20290.130.000.27

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OnyxCALIFORNIA11998
PearblossomCALIFORNIA12014
Kelso ValleyCALIFORNIA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.