BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

White-breasted Nuthatch In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in Coastal California has surged: up 82% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+82%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
90Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Coastal California: up 82% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

White-breasted Nuthatch In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Coastal California is projected to rise about 34% by 2030 — from 5.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.1 (95% range 4.5–9.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+34%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.5–9.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Coastal California is projected to rise about 34% by 2030 — from 5.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.1 (95% range 4.5–9.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.84.29.4
20276.94.39.5
20287.04.49.5
20297.04.49.6
20307.14.59.7

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Carmel ValCALIFORNIA322025
CoyoteCALIFORNIA272025
Yokohl ValCALIFORNIA231997
LockwoodCALIFORNIA232025
Tres Pinos 2CALIFORNIA232011
White RiverCALIFORNIA201992
TehamaCALIFORNIA182022
JacksonCALIFORNIA171992
Yolla BollyCALIFORNIA172025
FolsomCALIFORNIA162025
CopperopolisCALIFORNIA162024
Red BluffCALIFORNIA152025
Gold HillCALIFORNIA142025
CrestonCALIFORNIA132024
Angelus OaksCALIFORNIA132017
Cal Hot SpgsCALIFORNIA122019
Tres PinosCALIFORNIA112003
Santa YnezCALIFORNIA112019
Orange CoveCALIFORNIA102016
Mt LagunaCALIFORNIA101987
AdelaidaCALIFORNIA102025
MoragaCALIFORNIA102025
RumseyCALIFORNIA92008
Mt PinosCALIFORNIA92004
Lake HemetCALIFORNIA91986

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.