BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-breasted Nuthatch In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has surged: up 516% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+516%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
138Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-breasted Nuthatch has surged in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 516% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.5 (95% range 4.1–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.1–6.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±4.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.5 (95% range 4.1–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.23.86.5
20265.33.96.6
20275.34.06.7
20285.44.06.8
20295.54.16.9

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MaynardMASSACHUSETTS302022
Island CreekMARYLAND232024
NewburyportMASSACHUSETTS182022
Wallum LakeRHODE-ISLAND182024
Mid HaddamCONNECTICUT162024
Warren 2CONNECTICUT162024
Casimir Pulaski SfRHODE-ISLAND162018
LittletonMASSACHUSETTS152024
GreenwichCONNECTICUT142018
WestbrookCONNECTICUT132024
Forest GroveMARYLAND132023
HoldenMASSACHUSETTS132024
East KingstonNEW-HAMPSHIRE132024
WinslowNEW-JERSEY132024
PomfretMARYLAND122024
PomonkeyMARYLAND112024
MarionMASSACHUSETTS112024
BrocktonMASSACHUSETTS112019
S BarreMASSACHUSETTS112024
PomonaNEW-JERSEY112024
Cape NeddickMAINE102023
StraffordNEW-HAMPSHIRE102024
FriendshipNEW-JERSEY102024
BuckinghamCONNECTICUT92022
ShermanCONNECTICUT92019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.