BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

White-breasted Nuthatch In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has surged: up 483% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+483%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
139Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-breasted Nuthatch has surged in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 483% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

White-breasted Nuthatch In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 28% by 2030 — from 4.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.5 (95% range 4.1–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.1–6.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 28% by 2030 — from 4.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.5 (95% range 4.1–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.23.86.6
20275.33.96.6
20285.34.06.7
20295.44.06.8
20305.54.16.9

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NewburyportMASSACHUSETTS182022
MaynardMASSACHUSETTS182025
BelchertownMASSACHUSETTS172025
PomonaNEW-JERSEY162025
Casimir Pulaski SfRHODE-ISLAND162018
UncasvilleCONNECTICUT142025
GreenwichCONNECTICUT142018
WestbrookCONNECTICUT132024
Mid HaddamCONNECTICUT132025
Forest GroveMARYLAND132023
DoverNEW-HAMPSHIRE132025
PomfretMARYLAND122024
LittletonMASSACHUSETTS122025
WinslowNEW-JERSEY122025
BrocktonMASSACHUSETTS112019
Wallum LakeRHODE-ISLAND112025
Cape NeddickMAINE102023
MarionMASSACHUSETTS102025
East KingstonNEW-HAMPSHIRE102025
BuckinghamCONNECTICUT92022
ShermanCONNECTICUT92019
WarrenCONNECTICUT92011
WarrenMASSACHUSETTS92009
N. AndoverMASSACHUSETTS92025
Spraguetown 3NEW-JERSEY92025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.