BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

White-breasted Nuthatch In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 237% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+237%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
402Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 237% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

White-breasted Nuthatch In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 34% by 2030 — from 3.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 4.0–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+34%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.0–6.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 34% by 2030 — from 3.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 4.0–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.83.85.8
20274.83.85.8
20284.93.95.9
20295.04.06.0
20305.04.06.0

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tar HollowOHIO332024
Kemah LakeNEW-JERSEY302024
JenningsMARYLAND222025
CanadensisPENNSYLVANIA222025
Cumberlnd GpKENTUCKY212018
StoneybreakPENNSYLVANIA212025
Scioto TrailOHIO202013
Kehoe 2KENTUCKY192024
Wayne N.F.OHIO182024
GlenwoodVIRGINIA172023
Beattyville 2KENTUCKY162024
Potts Mtn.VIRGINIA162013
WilgusOHIO152019
BaxterGEORGIA142022
Piney GroveMARYLAND142025
Shawnee S.F.OHIO142000
GreentownPENNSYLVANIA142024
Front RoyalVIRGINIA142025
BirminghamOHIO132024
BetulaPENNSYLVANIA132022
OldtownMARYLAND122025
Green RidgeMARYLAND122025
French Broad RiverNORTH-CAROLINA122023
DuvallPENNSYLVANIA122021
Pocono Summit 2PENNSYLVANIA122010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.