BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-breasted Nuthatch In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 263% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+263%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
401Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 263% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.0 (95% range 4.1–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.1–6.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.0 (95% range 4.1–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.83.85.8
20264.83.95.8
20274.93.95.9
20285.04.06.0
20295.04.16.0

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tar HollowOHIO332024
Kemah LakeNEW-JERSEY302024
ShanghaiWEST-VIRGINIA262022
Cumberlnd GpKENTUCKY212018
JenningsMARYLAND202024
Scioto TrailOHIO202013
Kehoe 2KENTUCKY192024
DresdenOHIO192024
Wayne N.F.OHIO182024
Green RidgeMARYLAND172024
GlenwoodVIRGINIA172023
Beattyville 2KENTUCKY162024
StoneybreakPENNSYLVANIA162024
Signal MtnTENNESSEE162024
Potts Mtn.VIRGINIA162013
Clear CreekWEST-VIRGINIA162024
WashburnWEST-VIRGINIA162022
BrevardNORTH-CAROLINA152024
WilgusOHIO152019
JasperTENNESSEE152024
BaxterGEORGIA142022
Bolins MillsOHIO142024
Shawnee S.F.OHIO142000
GreentownPENNSYLVANIA142024
CanadensisPENNSYLVANIA142024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.