BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-breasted Nuthatch In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 391% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+391%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
186Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 391% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 0.84 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.69 (95% range 0.48–0.90). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.69Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.48–0.9095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 0.84 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.69 (95% range 0.48–0.90). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.650.450.86
20260.660.450.87
20270.670.460.88
20280.680.470.89
20290.690.480.90

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Big SandyTENNESSEE202024
ApalachicolaFLORIDA111997
Adams RunSOUTH-CAROLINA92024
Trace SouthMISSISSIPPI82019
DortchesNORTH-CAROLINA82024
Trace CentralMISSISSIPPI72022
Dismal SwampNORTH-CAROLINA72024
Miller XrdsFLORIDA61997
BostonGEORGIA62024
ShilohKENTUCKY62023
Trace ChoctawMISSISSIPPI62019
MansfieldTENNESSEE62024
SilertonTENNESSEE62024
MiccosukeeFLORIDA52024
Trace LormanMISSISSIPPI52019
Oak Ridge VickMISSISSIPPI52021
HallsboroNORTH-CAROLINA52016
Lake SurfNORTH-CAROLINA52024
RaefordNORTH-CAROLINA52019
WalterboroSOUTH-CAROLINA52017
Dismal SwampVIRGINIA52016
CottontonALABAMA42024
Grove HillALABAMA41991
DouglasGEORGIA41984
Pearl RiverLOUISIANA41994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.