BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

White-breasted Nuthatch In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 442% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+442%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
188Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 442% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

White-breasted Nuthatch In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 17% by 2030 — from 0.86 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.71 (95% range 0.50–0.92). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.71Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.50–0.9295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 17% by 2030 — from 0.86 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.71 (95% range 0.50–0.92). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.680.460.89
20270.690.470.90
20280.690.480.91
20290.700.490.92
20300.710.500.92

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Big SandyTENNESSEE162025
ApalachicolaFLORIDA111997
Trace SouthMISSISSIPPI82019
St FlorianALABAMA72025
CottontonALABAMA72025
CorinthMISSISSIPPI72025
Trace CentralMISSISSIPPI72025
Dismal SwampNORTH-CAROLINA72024
Miller XrdsFLORIDA61997
BostonGEORGIA62024
Trace ChoctawMISSISSIPPI62019
RaefordNORTH-CAROLINA62025
Sheep RidgeNORTH-CAROLINA62025
SilertonTENNESSEE62024
Trace LormanMISSISSIPPI52019
Oak Ridge VickMISSISSIPPI52021
HallsboroNORTH-CAROLINA52016
WalterboroSOUTH-CAROLINA52017
Dismal SwampVIRGINIA52016
Grove HillALABAMA41991
CarrolltonALABAMA42025
DouglasGEORGIA41984
ShilohKENTUCKY42025
Pearl RiverLOUISIANA41994
WeirMISSISSIPPI42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.