BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-breasted Nuthatch In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 675% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+675%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 675% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 0.94 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.62 (95% range 0.28–0.97). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-34%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.62Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.28–0.9795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 0.94 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.62 (95% range 0.28–0.97). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.580.240.93
20260.590.250.94
20270.600.260.95
20280.610.270.96
20290.620.280.97

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS202024
BardwellKENTUCKY62003
DundeeMISSISSIPPI62022
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI52024
TallahatchieMISSISSIPPI32024
Warren VickMISSISSIPPI32019
TippoMISSISSIPPI22024
DeventerMISSOURI22023
TiptonvilleTENNESSEE22023
HughesARKANSAS12023
AugustaARKANSAS11993
SaffellARKANSAS12019
MaynardARKANSAS12014
Hickory RidgeARKANSAS12021
UlmARKANSAS12023
WilsonARKANSAS12012
Augusta 2ARKANSAS12007
Bardwell 2KENTUCKY12024
GonzalesLOUISIANA11999
Tensas NwrLOUISIANA11988
IsolaMISSISSIPPI11997
Eagle LakeMISSISSIPPI12023
Tchula 2MISSISSIPPI11991
PawpawTENNESSEE11984
Pawpaw 2TENNESSEE12013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.