BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

White-breasted Nuthatch In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 647% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+647%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 647% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

White-breasted Nuthatch In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.64 (95% range 0.30–0.99). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.64Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.30–0.9995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.64 (95% range 0.30–0.99). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.600.260.95
20270.610.270.96
20280.620.280.97
20290.630.290.98
20300.640.300.99

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS192025
BardwellKENTUCKY62003
DundeeMISSISSIPPI62022
TallahatchieMISSISSIPPI32024
Warren VickMISSISSIPPI32019
DeventerMISSOURI22023
HughesARKANSAS12023
AugustaARKANSAS11993
SaffellARKANSAS12019
MaynardARKANSAS12014
Hickory RidgeARKANSAS12021
GillettARKANSAS12025
UlmARKANSAS12023
WilsonARKANSAS12025
Augusta 2ARKANSAS12007
Bardwell 2KENTUCKY12025
GonzalesLOUISIANA11999
Tensas NwrLOUISIANA11988
IsolaMISSISSIPPI11997
Eagle LakeMISSISSIPPI12023
Tchula 2MISSISSIPPI11991
TippoMISSISSIPPI12025
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI12025
TiptonvilleTENNESSEE12025
PawpawTENNESSEE11984

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.