BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-breasted Nuthatch In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has surged: up 231% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+231%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-breasted Nuthatch has surged in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: up 231% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.96 (95% range 0.56–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.96Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.56–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.96 (95% range 0.56–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.920.531.3
20260.930.541.3
20270.940.551.3
20280.950.561.3
20290.960.561.4

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PushmatahaOKLAHOMA112023
SimsARKANSAS92024
WaldronARKANSAS82024
Hatfield 2ARKANSAS52024
Magazine MtnARKANSAS42021
Ouachita NfOKLAHOMA42024
AthensTEXAS42024
HavanaARKANSAS32021
NanceARKANSAS32024
Big CedarOKLAHOMA32024
McalesterOKLAHOMA31990
PhillipsOKLAHOMA32006
PocolaOKLAHOMA32016
Locust BayouARKANSAS22022
AshdownARKANSAS22019
CrowsARKANSAS21991
PoyenARKANSAS22006
SpringhillARKANSAS22022
StephensARKANSAS22016
Mount UnionLOUISIANA22024
Ivan 2LOUISIANA22015
IndianolaOKLAHOMA22023
BethelOKLAHOMA22024
Hee MountainOKLAHOMA22024
CaledoniaTEXAS22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.