BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

White-breasted Nuthatch In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has surged: up 273% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+273%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-breasted Nuthatch has surged in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: up 273% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

White-breasted Nuthatch In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.99 (95% range 0.59–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.99Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.59–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.99 (95% range 0.59–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.950.551.3
20270.960.561.4
20280.970.571.4
20290.980.581.4
20300.990.591.4

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PushmatahaOKLAHOMA112023
WaldronARKANSAS72025
SimsARKANSAS62025
NanceARKANSAS62025
Magazine MtnARKANSAS62025
Ouachita NfOKLAHOMA62025
MortonTEXAS62025
Hatfield 2ARKANSAS52025
HopeARKANSAS42025
AthensTEXAS42024
HavanaARKANSAS32021
Poyen 2ARKANSAS32025
Big CedarOKLAHOMA32024
McalesterOKLAHOMA31990
PocolaOKLAHOMA32016
Locust BayouARKANSAS22022
AshdownARKANSAS22019
CrowsARKANSAS21991
PoyenARKANSAS22006
SpringhillARKANSAS22022
Mount UnionLOUISIANA22024
IndianolaOKLAHOMA22023
Hee MountainOKLAHOMA22024
CaledoniaTEXAS22024
Union HillTEXAS22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.