BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

White-breasted Nuthatch In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 129% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+129%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
160Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 129% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

White-breasted Nuthatch In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 16% by 2030 — from 3.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 3.1–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.1–5.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 16% by 2030 — from 3.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 3.1–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.32.95.6
20274.33.05.6
20284.33.05.6
20294.43.15.7
20304.43.15.7

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GalesburgMICHIGAN192025
Barry S.G.A.MICHIGAN172012
PrincetonWISCONSIN172024
EdwardsMINNESOTA162024
NashvilleMICHIGAN132025
HowardsvilleMICHIGAN122025
MillvilleMINNESOTA122025
Caledonia 2MINNESOTA122025
KnappMINNESOTA112025
Brook ParkMINNESOTA112024
BeloitWISCONSIN112025
LakevilleINDIANA102024
AlmenaMICHIGAN102015
MinnetonkaMINNESOTA102025
TrempealeauWISCONSIN102025
ScottvilleMICHIGAN92025
Allegan WmaMICHIGAN92019
N FreedomWISCONSIN92025
ParisWISCONSIN92025
PrattvilleMICHIGAN82021
St StephenMINNESOTA82025
AshbyMINNESOTA82021
ViroquaWISCONSIN82024
MerideanWISCONSIN82025
KnoxINDIANA72025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.