BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-breasted Nuthatch In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 124% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+124%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
160Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 124% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.4 (95% range 3.1–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.1–5.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.32.95.6
20264.33.05.6
20274.33.05.6
20284.43.05.7
20294.43.15.7

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Barry S.G.A.MICHIGAN172012
PrincetonWISCONSIN172024
EdwardsMINNESOTA162024
CumberlandWISCONSIN152024
MerideanWISCONSIN132024
KnoxINDIANA122024
NashvilleMICHIGAN122024
HowardsvilleMICHIGAN122024
KnappMINNESOTA122024
ClintonvilleWISCONSIN122024
Brook ParkMINNESOTA112024
Caledonia 2MINNESOTA112024
LakevilleINDIANA102024
AlmenaMICHIGAN102015
ParisWISCONSIN102024
Belding 2MICHIGAN92024
Allegan WmaMICHIGAN92019
MinnetonkaMINNESOTA92024
EsdaileWISCONSIN92024
GalesburgMICHIGAN82024
MontereyMICHIGAN82024
PrattvilleMICHIGAN82021
Bell Oak 2MICHIGAN82023
Hamburg 2MICHIGAN82024
AshbyMINNESOTA82021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.