BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-breasted Nuthatch In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 411% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+411%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 411% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 41% by 2029 — from 0.51 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.72 (95% range 0.28–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+41%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.72Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.28–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±92%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 41% by 2029 — from 0.51 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.72 (95% range 0.28–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.690.251.1
20260.700.261.1
20270.700.271.1
20280.710.281.1
20290.720.281.2

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HeyburnOKLAHOMA92024
Arenosa CrkTEXAS52007
BeggsOKLAHOMA32023
BarnsdallOKLAHOMA31977
Massey LakeTEXAS32024
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA22018
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA22009
Oak GroveTEXAS21992
GauseTEXAS21993
OakwoodTEXAS21974
ThorntonTEXAS21979
SadlerTEXAS22024
CayugaTEXAS22024
Thornton 2TEXAS22001
Wills PointTEXAS22016
Gambill Ref.TEXAS22024
LocoOKLAHOMA11970
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA12024
ChoctawOKLAHOMA12016
NobleOKLAHOMA12024
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA12024
TatumsOKLAHOMA12024
DuncanOKLAHOMA12023
SkiatookOKLAHOMA12019
OlaTEXAS12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.