BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-breasted Nuthatch In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

12×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 0.45 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.61 (95% range 0.42–0.80). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.61Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.42–0.8095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 0.45 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.61 (95% range 0.42–0.80). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.570.380.76
20260.580.390.77
20270.590.400.78
20280.600.410.79
20290.610.420.80

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wichita MtnsOKLAHOMA101994
KanopolisKANSAS82023
CovertKANSAS82024
Wichita Mtns EastOKLAHOMA62022
JamestownKANSAS42024
AlmeriaNEBRASKA42014
WellingtonKANSAS32024
SumnerNEBRASKA31987
HolbrookNEBRASKA31989
BuckeyeKANSAS22018
GrayKANSAS22014
LeovilleKANSAS22015
MinneapolisKANSAS22019
GoveKANSAS22000
Jewell 2KANSAS22024
HopewellKANSAS22006
SewardNEBRASKA22023
BradyNEBRASKA22024
HendleyNEBRASKA22023
HamptonNEBRASKA22024
JetOKLAHOMA22022
DaltonKANSAS12024
St JohnKANSAS12016
CoatsKANSAS12003
ColdwaterKANSAS12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.