BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

White-breasted Nuthatch In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 998% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+998%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for White-breasted Nuthatch in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

White-breasted Nuthatch In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 50% by 2030 — from 0.40 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.60 (95% range 0.41–0.80). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+50%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.60Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.41–0.8095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 50% by 2030 — from 0.40 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.60 (95% range 0.41–0.80). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.570.380.76
20270.580.390.77
20280.590.390.78
20290.600.400.79
20300.600.410.80

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wichita MtnsOKLAHOMA101994
KanopolisKANSAS52025
WellingtonKANSAS42025
AlmeriaNEBRASKA42014
SumnerNEBRASKA31987
HolbrookNEBRASKA31989
BradyNEBRASKA32025
BuckeyeKANSAS22018
GrayKANSAS22014
LeovilleKANSAS22015
MinneapolisKANSAS22019
CovertKANSAS22025
GoveKANSAS22000
Jewell 2KANSAS22025
HopewellKANSAS22006
BassettNEBRASKA22025
HamptonNEBRASKA22025
JetOKLAHOMA22022
DaltonKANSAS12024
St JohnKANSAS12016
CoatsKANSAS12003
ColdwaterKANSAS12017
ChapmanKANSAS11974
AlbertKANSAS11981
HanoverKANSAS12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.