BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-breasted Nuthatch In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 402% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

+402%Since 1992TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 402% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

White-breasted Nuthatch In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.17 (95% range 0.03–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±369.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.17Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±369.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.17 (95% range 0.03–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±369.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19862029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.160.020.29
20260.160.030.29
20270.160.030.29
20280.160.030.29
20290.170.030.30

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA62024
ElbertCOLORADO42024
Kiowa 2COLORADO32022
CrawfordNEBRASKA32024
KiowaCOLORADO22013
TrincheraCOLORADO12022
VillegreenCOLORADO12000
Arsenal 2COLORADO12022
Murray LakeNEBRASKA12003
GrenvilleNEW-MEXICO11992
LingleWYOMING12014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.