BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-breasted Nuthatch In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 205% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+205%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 205% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 269% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.69 (95% range 0.27–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±165.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+269%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.69Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.27–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±165.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 269% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.69 (95% range 0.27–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±165.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.650.231.1
20260.660.241.1
20270.670.251.1
20280.680.261.1
20290.690.271.1

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NorbeckSOUTH-DAKOTA142002
Elk MountainSOUTH-DAKOTA82004
Lightning CrSOUTH-DAKOTA82022
CusterSOUTH-DAKOTA62024
Chuffey SpringMONTANA52023
RochfordSOUTH-DAKOTA52018
Black FoxSOUTH-DAKOTA32017
MoskeeWYOMING32001
BrandenbergMONTANA22019
Bull Mtn.MONTANA22021
CrookstonNEBRASKA22023
Roosevelt PkNORTH-DAKOTA22015
SolenNORTH-DAKOTA22024
RosebudSOUTH-DAKOTA22009
Hill CitySOUTH-DAKOTA22013
EnglewoodSOUTH-DAKOTA22021
Wind Cave NpSOUTH-DAKOTA22023
RecluseWYOMING22022
Moskee 2WYOMING22019
HighwoodMONTANA12009
BrusettMONTANA11985
JordanMONTANA12017
Two DotMONTANA11987
ShawmutMONTANA11979
Reed PointMONTANA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.