BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-breasted Nuthatch In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 142% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+142%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
149Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 142% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 47% by 2029 — from 0.74 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.61–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+47%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.61–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±64%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 47% by 2029 — from 0.74 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.61–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.00.571.5
20261.10.581.5
20271.10.591.5
20281.10.601.6
20291.10.611.6

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SawmillARIZONA242014
La SalUTAH202000
Mt. Taylor 2NEW-MEXICO112024
Animas 2COLORADO102018
Haycamp MesaCOLORADO92024
ParlinCOLORADO82017
CokedaleCOLORADO82024
Bluewater LakeNEW-MEXICO72021
Stinking Lk.NEW-MEXICO61999
Angel FireNEW-MEXICO62002
GallinasNEW-MEXICO62024
ZeniffARIZONA51984
Cheesman LkCOLORADO52021
FalfaCOLORADO52024
GuffeyCOLORADO52024
Cortez 2COLORADO52017
Ryan ParkWYOMING51993
Black MesaARIZONA41995
TsaileARIZONA42023
DoloresCOLORADO41979
PowderhornCOLORADO42023
Gold HillCOLORADO42012
GardnerCOLORADO42022
Fence LakeNEW-MEXICO42024
VallecitosNEW-MEXICO42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.