BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

White-breasted Nuthatch In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 137% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+137%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
150Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 136% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

White-breasted Nuthatch In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 33% by 2030 — from 0.80 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.60–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+33%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.60–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 33% by 2030 — from 0.80 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.60–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.00.561.5
20271.00.571.5
20281.10.581.5
20291.10.591.5
20301.10.601.5

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SawmillARIZONA242014
La SalUTAH202000
Haycamp MesaCOLORADO112025
Mt. Taylor 2NEW-MEXICO112024
Animas 2COLORADO102018
McgaffeyNEW-MEXICO102025
Blackhead PkCOLORADO92025
ParlinCOLORADO82017
Bryce CanyonUTAH82025
Bluewater LakeNEW-MEXICO72021
WalsenburgCOLORADO62025
Stinking Lk.NEW-MEXICO61999
Angel FireNEW-MEXICO62002
ZeniffARIZONA51984
LudlowCOLORADO52025
Cortez 2COLORADO52017
MonticelloUTAH52025
Ryan ParkWYOMING51993
Black MesaARIZONA41995
TsaileARIZONA42023
Cheesman LkCOLORADO42025
DoloresCOLORADO41979
FalfaCOLORADO42025
TarryallCOLORADO42025
PiedraCOLORADO42025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.