BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-breasted Nuthatch In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in Sierra Nevada has fallen sharply: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-62%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-breasted Nuthatch has fallen sharply in Sierra Nevada: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.00–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.00–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.00.004.7
20262.00.004.7
20271.90.004.7
20281.90.004.6
20291.90.004.6

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in Sierra Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bass LakeCALIFORNIA232019
Lassen ParkCALIFORNIA191977
ChilcootCALIFORNIA132024
Silver CityCALIFORNIA102013
WawonaCALIFORNIA92024
Eagle LakeCALIFORNIA72024
Meadow ValleyCALIFORNIA72010
Pine MountainCALIFORNIA62017
Cottage SpgsCALIFORNIA51975
LumberyardCALIFORNIA52019
Greenhorn MtCALIFORNIA52008
Higgins CornCALIFORNIA52024
GoumazCALIFORNIA42011
Little TruckeeCALIFORNIA42023
WestvilleCALIFORNIA32024
KernvilleCALIFORNIA32008
CrestviewCALIFORNIA32024
DardanelleCALIFORNIA22015
SattleyCALIFORNIA22024
GeneseeCALIFORNIA22024
LakeshoreCALIFORNIA22024
PaxtonCALIFORNIA22004
CoultervilleCALIFORNIA22016
Last ChanceCALIFORNIA22019
JohnsvilleCALIFORNIA12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.