BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-breasted Nuthatch In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 200% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+200%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
85Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 200% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 10% by 2029 — from 4.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 2.9–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.9–4.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 10% by 2029 — from 4.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 2.9–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.62.74.6
20263.72.84.6
20273.72.84.7
20283.82.94.7
20293.82.94.8

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CatskillsNEW-YORK162015
W ShokanNEW-YORK142019
North EastonNEW-YORK142024
RhinebeckNEW-YORK132024
CastileNEW-YORK132024
PenfieldNEW-YORK122024
ParishvilleNEW-YORK122024
HiramOHIO122021
HighlandNEW-YORK92022
TrumansburgNEW-YORK72024
ArgyleNEW-YORK72024
NaplesNEW-YORK72024
PittsfieldOHIO72024
HarrisvillePENNSYLVANIA72022
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK62024
LucerneOHIO62024
LattasburgOHIO62024
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA62024
Canadice LNEW-YORK52024
SheridanNEW-YORK52024
WatertownNEW-YORK52012
ClintonNEW-YORK52012
GarrettsvileOHIO51990
Herner CrnsOHIO52024
HebronOHIO52024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.