BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-breasted Nuthatch In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in Boreal Hardwood Transition has surged: up 101% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+101%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
121Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 101% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.0–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±70.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.0–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.10.933.3
20262.10.953.3
20272.10.973.3
20282.20.993.3
20292.21.03.3

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BagleyMINNESOTA132006
Union TwpWISCONSIN102024
WausaukeeWISCONSIN102024
Eagle RiverWISCONSIN92024
Imp LakeMICHIGAN82019
IshpemingMICHIGAN72019
FredericMICHIGAN72003
Rib LakeWISCONSIN72024
RiggsvilleMICHIGAN62019
AmbergWISCONSIN62024
Weirgor SpringsWISCONSIN62024
Crystal FlsMICHIGAN52024
Frederic 2MICHIGAN52017
CohassetMINNESOTA52021
BemidjiMINNESOTA51980
Land O LakesWISCONSIN52016
BerglandMICHIGAN42019
CunardMICHIGAN42021
Walloon LakeMICHIGAN42004
Beaver LakeMICHIGAN42011
Pleasant Valley 2MICHIGAN42024
Big Island LakeMICHIGAN42009
LudeMINNESOTA42023
BrainerdMINNESOTA42024
Washington IWISCONSIN42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.