BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Tanager Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Western Tanager in New Mexico has surged: up 354% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+354%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Tanager Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Tanager has surged in New Mexico: up 354% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Western Tanager Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Western Tanager in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.8 (95% range 3.4–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.4–6.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Tanager in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.8 (95% range 3.4–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.63.16.0
20274.63.26.0
20284.73.36.1
20294.83.36.2
20304.83.46.2

Western Tanager Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Western Tanager in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cloudcroft6820251975
Gallinas4220251992
Angel Fire 23320252005
Angel Fire2720021992
Ojo Sarco2320251968
Reserve2320251993
Mt. Taylor2220121993
Bluewater Lake1920211999
Mt. Taylor 21520242014
Vallecitos1220251994
Claunch 21020252001
Cebolla720231973
Pecos520171973
Emory Pass520251993
Pinon520241992
Mcgaffey420251995
Fence Lake320241980
Rodeo219741974
Quemado219971997
Crownpoint119691969
La Cienega120161980
Valencia119951975
Claunch120001978
Horse Spgs120251979
Horse Mtn120241968

Western Tanager Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.