BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Tanager Population Trend in Nevada

All statesGeneralists

Western Tanager in Nevada has surged: up 154% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+154%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Tanager Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Tanager has surged in Nevada: up 154% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Western Tanager Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Western Tanager in Nevada is projected to rise about 48% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.47 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±172.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+48%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.47Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±172.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Tanager in Nevada is projected to rise about 48% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.47 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±172.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.470.001.0
20260.470.001.0
20270.470.001.0
20280.470.001.0
20290.470.001.0

Western Tanager Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Western Tanager in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Willis420241994
Ruby Valley419991997
Humboldt Nf320072006
Austin320182008
Meadow Vally320231998
Humboldt Nf 2320242024
Jarbidge320151997
Comins Lake220162005
Walker Can220241984
Ruby Valley 2220192004
Nixon220111979
Fallon220051998
Hawthorne220011999
Ranchogrande120191991
Sheldon Nwr120072007
Fish Creek120171998
Cortez119741974
Toiyabe Nf120162016
Illipah120151999
Majors Place119711971
Dobbin Creek120041997
Minerva120152015
Hiko120231971
Jean Lake119991976
Chimney Res.120232005

Western Tanager Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.