BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Meadowlark In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestGrassland birds

Western Meadowlark in Northern Pacific Rainforest has collapsed: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-80%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Meadowlark has collapsed in Northern Pacific Rainforest: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±95.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.200.003.7
20260.040.003.5
20270.000.003.5
20280.000.003.5
20290.000.003.5

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Western Meadowlark in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
YrekaCALIFORNIA502019
GazelleCALIFORNIA492021
AlderpointCALIFORNIA462012
UmpquaOREGON402024
Emigrant LkOREGON212001
Sams ValleyOREGON192024
GreenOREGON182024
DerbyOREGON151993
Martins FyCALIFORNIA102009
LongvaleCALIFORNIA92023
AdairOREGON92024
ElktonOREGON92024
Rio DellCALIFORNIA82012
McchordWASHINGTON52015
NavarroCALIFORNIA41974
Bodega BayCALIFORNIA42019
ProspectOREGON42024
HoneydewCALIFORNIA32017
Hay ForkCALIFORNIA32017
Secret ValOREGON31980
Emigrant Lake 2OREGON32024
Port AngelesWASHINGTON31997
Horse CreekCALIFORNIA21974
Crescent CtyCALIFORNIA22017
Mt ShastaCALIFORNIA22019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.