BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Meadowlark In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionGrassland birds

Western Meadowlark in Prairie Hardwood Transition has collapsed: down 100% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-100%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
125Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Meadowlark has collapsed in Prairie Hardwood Transition: down 100% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Western Meadowlark In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16190.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16190.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16190.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.0011
20260.000.0011
20270.000.0011
20280.000.0011
20290.000.0011

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Western Meadowlark in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cherry ValILLINOIS132002
KingswayOHIO81976
Buena VistaWISCONSIN72024
Rolling GrndWISCONSIN62001
CochraneWISCONSIN41985
Le CenterMINNESOTA31999
GilmantonWISCONSIN32021
ManawaWISCONSIN31998
N AndoverWISCONSIN32019
Prairie Du ChienWISCONSIN32012
KielWISCONSIN32007
HollandWISCONSIN32006
PackertownINDIANA21986
FestinaIOWA22019
New TroyMICHIGAN21983
St CharlesMICHIGAN21979
FowlervilleMICHIGAN21977
DeckervilleMICHIGAN22007
OsseoMINNESOTA22002
KnappMINNESOTA22008
EvergreenMINNESOTA22023
Sherburne NrMINNESOTA21998
WeyerhauserWISCONSIN22006
HatfieldWISCONSIN21994
MatherWISCONSIN21966

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.