BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Meadowlark In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGrassland birds

Western Meadowlark in Prairie Potholes has fallen sharply: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-54%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
124Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Meadowlark has fallen sharply in Prairie Potholes: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 46% by 2029 — from 60 in 2024 to a central estimate of 32 (95% range 5.0–60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-46%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.0–6095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 46% by 2029 — from 60 in 2024 to a central estimate of 32 (95% range 5.0–60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025371065
2026368.964
2027357.662
2028346.361
2029325.060

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Western Meadowlark in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ester LakeMONTANA2762024
WinsideNEBRASKA2482003
RedstoneMONTANA2402024
SacoMONTANA1982024
Wolf PointMONTANA1892024
MaltaMONTANA1812024
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA1802024
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA1732024
WhitlashMONTANA1652024
Long LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA1612019
GlasgowMONTANA1472024
ChinookMONTANA1452024
LambertMONTANA1452024
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA1372024
WestbyMONTANA1322024
ClevelandMONTANA1282024
Crow CreekSOUTH-DAKOTA1282023
CondeSOUTH-DAKOTA1251984
MidwayNEBRASKA1212023
SydneyNORTH-DAKOTA1121983
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA1082011
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA1072024
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA1022022
Douglas CrkNORTH-DAKOTA1022024
GeddesSOUTH-DAKOTA982023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.