BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Meadowlark In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGrassland birds

Western Meadowlark in Prairie Potholes has fallen sharply: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-55%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
124Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Meadowlark has fallen sharply in Prairie Potholes: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Western Meadowlark In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 41% by 2030 — from 55 in 2025 to a central estimate of 32 (95% range 5.0–60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-41%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.0–6095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 41% by 2030 — from 55 in 2025 to a central estimate of 32 (95% range 5.0–60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263710.065
2027368.764
2028357.562
2029346.261
2030325.060

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Western Meadowlark in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WinsideNEBRASKA2482003
RedstoneMONTANA2412025
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA2302025
SacoMONTANA2072025
GlasgowMONTANA2032025
Ester LakeMONTANA1982025
Wolf PointMONTANA1892024
WhitlashMONTANA1652024
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA1622025
Long LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA1612019
MidwayNEBRASKA1492025
WestbyMONTANA1412025
LambertMONTANA1342025
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA1322025
Crow CreekSOUTH-DAKOTA1282023
CondeSOUTH-DAKOTA1251984
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA1202025
ChinookMONTANA1172025
SydneyNORTH-DAKOTA1121983
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA1082011
SpartaNEBRASKA1072025
GettysburgSOUTH-DAKOTA942023
ClevelandMONTANA912025
MaltaMONTANA862025
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA842025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.