BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Kingbird In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in Northern Pacific Rainforest has declined: down 42% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-42%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Kingbird in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 57% by 2029 — from 0.99 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.42 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-57%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.42Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 57% by 2029 — from 0.99 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.42 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.500.001.2
20260.480.001.2
20270.460.001.1
20280.450.001.1
20290.420.001.1

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Western Kingbird in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
UmpquaOREGON252024
GreenOREGON152024
YrekaCALIFORNIA142019
AlderpointCALIFORNIA122012
Sams ValleyOREGON102024
Emigrant Lake 2OREGON72024
ElktonOREGON62024
Emigrant LkOREGON62001
Mt ShastaCALIFORNIA52019
GazelleCALIFORNIA52021
Days CreekOREGON52024
RuchOREGON52023
Burnt RanchCALIFORNIA42013
Hay ForkCALIFORNIA32017
DerbyOREGON31993
SelmaOREGON32024
Horse CreekCALIFORNIA22019
Fish RockCALIFORNIA22010
LongvaleCALIFORNIA22023
WhiskeytownCALIFORNIA22007
South Fork MtnCALIFORNIA22022
SaladoOREGON21971
Secret ValOREGON22006
CanbyOREGON22006
SitkaALASKA11995

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.