BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Kingbird In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in Northern Pacific Rainforest has declined: down 29% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-29%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Kingbird in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Western Kingbird In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 66% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.48 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-66%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.48Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 66% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.48 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.550.001.2
20270.530.001.2
20280.510.001.2
20290.490.001.2
20300.480.001.2

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Western Kingbird in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GreenOREGON322025
UmpquaOREGON162025
Sams ValleyOREGON152025
YrekaCALIFORNIA142019
AlderpointCALIFORNIA122012
ElktonOREGON122025
RuchOREGON72025
Emigrant LkOREGON62001
Mt ShastaCALIFORNIA52019
GazelleCALIFORNIA52021
Days CreekOREGON52025
SelmaOREGON52025
Burnt RanchCALIFORNIA42013
Emigrant Lake 2OREGON42025
Hay ForkCALIFORNIA32017
DerbyOREGON31993
Horse CreekCALIFORNIA22019
Fish RockCALIFORNIA22010
LongvaleCALIFORNIA22023
WhiskeytownCALIFORNIA22007
South Fork MtnCALIFORNIA22022
SaladoOREGON21971
Secret ValOREGON22006
CanbyOREGON22006
SalemOREGON22025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.