BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Kingbird In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 100% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

+100%Since 1984TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Kingbird has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 100% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

Western Kingbird In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 64% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.39 (95% range 0.00–0.84). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-64%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.39Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±62.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 64% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.39 (95% range 0.00–0.84). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.370.000.82
20270.380.000.83
20280.380.000.83
20290.380.000.84
20300.390.000.84

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Western Kingbird in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
San PedroTEXAS162025
KatyTEXAS42025
VanderbiltTEXAS31972
Lag AtascosaTEXAS22025
IndianolaTEXAS22006
ChinquapinTEXAS22025
Bayside 2TEXAS21998
Vinton 2LOUISIANA12023
PetronilaTEXAS12018
WinnieTEXAS12024
Rock IslandTEXAS11983
Loyola BeachTEXAS12009
Oyster LakeTEXAS12022
BaysideTEXAS11994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.