BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Kingbird In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in Gulf Coastal Prairie has increased: up 45% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

+45%Since 1984TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Kingbird in Gulf Coastal Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 52% by 2029 — from 0.62 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.00–0.68). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-52%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.30Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 52% by 2029 — from 0.62 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.00–0.68). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.290.000.67
20260.300.000.68
20270.300.000.68
20280.300.000.68
20290.300.000.68

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Western Kingbird in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KatyTEXAS72024
Lag AtascosaTEXAS52024
VanderbiltTEXAS31972
IndianolaTEXAS22006
Bayside 2TEXAS21998
Vinton 2LOUISIANA12023
PetronilaTEXAS12018
WinnieTEXAS12024
Rock IslandTEXAS11983
Loyola BeachTEXAS12009
Oyster LakeTEXAS12022
BaysideTEXAS11994
San PedroTEXAS12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.