BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Kingbird In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in Prairie Hardwood Transition has declined: down 48% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-48%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
25YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Kingbird in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2012, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2012TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2012 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±84.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2012, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672012
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20080.010.000.05
20090.010.000.05
20100.010.000.05
20110.010.000.05
20120.010.000.05

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Western Kingbird in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KewannaINDIANA22007
EdwardsMINNESOTA22004
Money CreekMINNESOTA12000
PrincetonMINNESOTA11978
OsseoMINNESOTA11984
KnappMINNESOTA11978
St StephenMINNESOTA11986
EvergreenMINNESOTA11970
CochraneWISCONSIN11967
UnityWISCONSIN11998
WiotaWISCONSIN11987

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.