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Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Kingbird In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in Edwards Plateau has surged: up 326% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+326%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Kingbird has surged in Edwards Plateau: up 326% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.53–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.53–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±62%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.53–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.30.462.2
20261.30.472.2
20271.40.492.2
20281.40.512.2
20291.40.532.2

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Western Kingbird in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ManorTEXAS102024
UtopiaTEXAS62021
BoerneTEXAS32024
LeanderTEXAS32006
FitzhughTEXAS21978
Valley SpgsTEXAS22021
PidcokeTEXAS22012
Indian MtnTEXAS22024
Dripping SpgTEXAS22024
LeakeyTEXAS22006
MontellTEXAS22023
HarperTEXAS12017
San SabaTEXAS12021
KempnerTEXAS12014
AdamsvilleTEXAS12023
Pidcoke 2TEXAS12023
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS12024
Allen CreekTEXAS12021
RockspringTEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.