BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Kingbird In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in Prairie Potholes has declined: down 35% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-35%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
106Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Kingbird in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 32% by 2029 — from 4.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.2 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+32%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±67.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 32% by 2029 — from 4.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.2 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.50.0015
20266.50.0015
20276.40.0015
20286.30.0014
20296.20.0014

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Western Kingbird in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA442024
Douglas CrkNORTH-DAKOTA402024
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA342024
CondeSOUTH-DAKOTA331984
SydneyNORTH-DAKOTA321983
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA222024
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA212024
ParshallNORTH-DAKOTA212013
BraddockNORTH-DAKOTA212022
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA192024
LambertMONTANA182024
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA162023
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA152022
DanzigNORTH-DAKOTA142014
SacoMONTANA122024
ReganNORTH-DAKOTA112022
Lane 2SOUTH-DAKOTA112014
RedstoneMONTANA102024
Powers LakeNORTH-DAKOTA102024
Long LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA102019
OswegoMONTANA92024
ChinookMONTANA92024
MaltaMONTANA82024
WebsterNORTH-DAKOTA82024
LoraineNORTH-DAKOTA72019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.