BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Kingbird In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in Prairie Potholes has declined: down 39% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-39%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
107Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Kingbird in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Western Kingbird In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 49% by 2030 — from 4.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.0 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+49%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 49% by 2030 — from 4.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.0 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.30.0014
20276.20.0014
20286.10.0014
20296.10.0014
20306.00.0014

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Western Kingbird in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CondeSOUTH-DAKOTA331984
SydneyNORTH-DAKOTA321983
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA272025
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA212025
ParshallNORTH-DAKOTA212013
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA212025
WestbyMONTANA202025
LambertMONTANA202025
Powers LakeNORTH-DAKOTA192025
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA162023
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA162023
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA152025
DanzigNORTH-DAKOTA142014
ShelbyMONTANA122025
Douglas CrkNORTH-DAKOTA122025
Lane 2SOUTH-DAKOTA112014
GlasgowMONTANA102025
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA102025
Long LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA102019
VirgelleMONTANA92025
GlentanaMONTANA92025
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA92025
RedstoneMONTANA82025
ChinookMONTANA82025
SacoMONTANA82025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.