BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Grebe In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWetland birds

Western Grebe in Prairie Potholes has declined: down 35% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

-35%Since 1988TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Grebe in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Western Grebe In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Grebe in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 168% by 2030 — from 0.58 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.00–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±249.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+168%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±249.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Grebe in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 168% by 2030 — from 0.58 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.00–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±249.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19862030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.50.003.5
20271.50.003.5
20281.50.003.5
20291.50.003.5
20301.60.003.6

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Western Grebe in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA362025
RaymondSOUTH-DAKOTA202014
LakotaNORTH-DAKOTA122005
BrittonSOUTH-DAKOTA122023
BraddockNORTH-DAKOTA102022
Long LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA82019
Douglas CrkNORTH-DAKOTA72019
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA62000
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA52014
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA52023
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA52025
FormanNORTH-DAKOTA41997
DanzigNORTH-DAKOTA42014
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA42023
Big StoneMINNESOTA32003
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA32024
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA32012
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA22025
Lakota 2NORTH-DAKOTA22024
RoswellSOUTH-DAKOTA21990
CourtlandMINNESOTA12009
DawsonMINNESOTA12006
ChokioMINNESOTA12012
Great FallsMONTANA12015
WimbledonNORTH-DAKOTA12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.