BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Cattle-Egret In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaWetland birds

Western Cattle-Egret in Peninsular Florida has fallen sharply: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-65%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
79Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Cattle-Egret has fallen sharply in Peninsular Florida: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Western Cattle-Egret In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 23 (95% range 0.00–52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 23 (95% range 0.00–52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025270.0056
2026260.0055
2027250.0054
2028240.0053
2029230.0052

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Western Cattle-Egret in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Babcock RnchFLORIDA1201990
St LucieFLORIDA1172024
AlturasFLORIDA1111986
FlemingtonFLORIDA1061999
Mabel 2FLORIDA1042019
Mt. OliveFLORIDA1032024
NobletonFLORIDA882024
Dale MabryFLORIDA831988
MicanopyFLORIDA801991
San AntonioFLORIDA802024
Pennywash CrFLORIDA742024
ShawanoFLORIDA722002
Myakka HeadFLORIDA682011
MabelFLORIDA682011
BelmoreFLORIDA622024
Myakka Head 2FLORIDA602021
KendallFLORIDA591991
Devils GardnFLORIDA562024
GardnerFLORIDA541999
Lake BuffumFLORIDA492024
IndiantownFLORIDA482017
KissimmeeFLORIDA472022
Sandy 2FLORIDA382024
CrewsvilleFLORIDA342024
Wildernes PkFLORIDA332014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.