BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Cattle-Egret In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaWetland birds

Western Cattle-Egret in Peninsular Florida has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-63%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
79Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Cattle-Egret has fallen sharply in Peninsular Florida: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Western Cattle-Egret In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 25 in 2025 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 0.00–50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 25 in 2025 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 0.00–50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026260.0054
2027250.0053
2028240.0052
2029230.0051
2030220.0050

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Western Cattle-Egret in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
St LucieFLORIDA1842025
Mt. OliveFLORIDA1382025
Babcock RnchFLORIDA1201990
AlturasFLORIDA1111986
FlemingtonFLORIDA1061999
San AntonioFLORIDA942025
Dale MabryFLORIDA831988
MicanopyFLORIDA801991
Pennywash CrFLORIDA742024
ShawanoFLORIDA722002
Myakka HeadFLORIDA682011
MabelFLORIDA682011
BelmoreFLORIDA622024
Myakka Head 2FLORIDA602021
KendallFLORIDA591991
Mabel 2FLORIDA592025
RomeoFLORIDA582025
GardnerFLORIDA541999
Lake BuffumFLORIDA492024
IndiantownFLORIDA482017
NobletonFLORIDA462025
CrewsvilleFLORIDA442025
Devils GardnFLORIDA412025
Ridge HarborFLORIDA372025
Wildernes PkFLORIDA332014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.