BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Cattle-Egret In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainWetland birds

Western Cattle-Egret in Southeastern Coastal Plain has increased: up 45% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+45%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
283Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Cattle-Egret in Southeastern Coastal Plain. See the full index history below.

Western Cattle-Egret In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.0 (95% range 0.00–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.0 (95% range 0.00–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.50.0017
20278.40.0017
20288.20.0017
20298.10.0017
20308.00.0017

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Western Cattle-Egret in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dowling ParkFLORIDA2542025
Eglin A.F.B.FLORIDA1612011
RoseboroNORTH-CAROLINA1501997
Hildreth 2FLORIDA1462025
Wards CornerNORTH-CAROLINA1202024
HildrethFLORIDA1152007
BostonGEORGIA1082025
DouglasGEORGIA821984
MadridALABAMA802023
HarrellALABAMA742025
BlountstownFLORIDA722025
Dauphin IsALABAMA621990
SandersonFLORIDA622021
PhilemaGEORGIA612025
BennettsvilleSOUTH-CAROLINA602017
New HopeFLORIDA582011
HilliardFLORIDA562025
OusleyGEORGIA532025
Trace HindsMISSISSIPPI522022
PinettaFLORIDA512025
Sanderson 2FLORIDA472024
ShilohGEORGIA442025
BethanyGEORGIA422025
AberdeenMISSISSIPPI392025
Hixtown SwmpFLORIDA382025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.