BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Cattle-Egret In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasWetland birds

Western Cattle-Egret in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has surged: up 422% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+422%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
100Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Cattle-Egret has surged in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: up 421% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Western Cattle-Egret In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 79% by 2029 — from 7.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 0.00–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±136.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+79%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±136.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 79% by 2029 — from 7.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 0.00–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±136.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025130.0036
2026130.0036
2027130.0036
2028130.0036
2029130.0036

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Western Cattle-Egret in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DerryLOUISIANA2871989
EastonLOUISIANA1721990
ChandlerTEXAS892004
DibollTEXAS882024
CypressLOUISIANA691987
FillmoreLOUISIANA571989
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA532021
SandbluffOKLAHOMA391993
Mt. SelmanTEXAS362024
OakdaleLOUISIANA351994
Mer RougeLOUISIANA342008
NatchezLOUISIANA322024
HopeARKANSAS312024
SmyrnaTEXAS312010
EnterpriseLOUISIANA292024
Bon WierTEXAS292023
NatchitochesLOUISIANA281991
Neches BithTEXAS272017
MassardARKANSAS252006
New WaverlyTEXAS222024
Derry 2LOUISIANA212024
CrowsARKANSAS201989
WechesTEXAS202024
BlancoOKLAHOMA172003
Chandler 2TEXAS172024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.