BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Cattle-Egret In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieWetland birds

Western Cattle-Egret in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has declined: down 33% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

-33%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Cattle-Egret in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Western Cattle-Egret In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.19 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3806.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.19Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±3806.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.19 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3806.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.220.001.4
20260.210.001.4
20270.210.001.4
20280.200.001.4
20290.190.001.4

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Western Cattle-Egret in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WainwrightOKLAHOMA982005
MelroseKANSAS501997
CollinsvilleOKLAHOMA202006
PittsburgKANSAS112007
EllinorKANSAS82005
StetMISSOURI81995
ColumbiaILLINOIS52018
LaplandKANSAS51988
Trading PostKANSAS52008
AustinMINNESOTA52001
FilleyMISSOURI52013
FrankfordMISSOURI51995
BartonvilleILLINOIS41985
JamestownILLINOIS42009
ForakerOKLAHOMA41995
St MorganILLINOIS32004
Le LoupKANSAS32001
WelchOKLAHOMA32019
KeetonvilleOKLAHOMA32013
RosamondILLINOIS21972
Mascoutah LkILLINOIS22011
WatsonMISSOURI21993
GretnaNEBRASKA22008
GulfportILLINOIS11993
CameronILLINOIS12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.