BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Cattle-Egret In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesWetland birds

Western Cattle-Egret in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 788% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+788%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
71Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Cattle-Egret has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 788% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Western Cattle-Egret In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 148% by 2030 — from 16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 40 (95% range 7.7–73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±131.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+148%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.7–7395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±131.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 148% by 2030 — from 16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 40 (95% range 7.7–73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±131.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026407.073
2027407.173
2028407.373
2029407.573
2030407.773

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Western Cattle-Egret in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Massey LakeTEXAS2982025
Wills PointTEXAS2422016
OakwoodTEXAS2251995
CayugaTEXAS1722025
ThorntonTEXAS1401984
Arenosa CrkTEXAS672025
CreedmoreTEXAS612014
Oak GroveTEXAS581999
LocoOKLAHOMA361985
Thornton 3TEXAS322025
Whit Mtn.TEXAS322019
CarlosTEXAS312025
Lone OakTEXAS292022
HenriettaTEXAS292022
Blue RidgeTEXAS282025
WeatherfordTEXAS252025
BrucevilleTEXAS252024
Mount ZionTEXAS242025
CampbelltonTEXAS212024
SadlerTEXAS202025
Oak Grove 2TEXAS192025
Wolfe CityTEXAS181987
GreenvilleTEXAS172025
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA162022
OlneyTEXAS162024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.