BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Cattle-Egret In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesWetland birds

Western Cattle-Egret in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 835% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+835%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
71Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Cattle-Egret has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 835% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Western Cattle-Egret In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 47% by 2029 — from 29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 42 (95% range 9.8–75). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±121.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+47%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.8–7595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±121.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 47% by 2029 — from 29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 42 (95% range 9.8–75). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±121.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025418.974
2026429.174
2027429.374
2028429.674
2029429.875

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Western Cattle-Egret in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Massey LakeTEXAS4782024
GrafordTEXAS3112019
CarlosTEXAS2632024
Wills PointTEXAS2422016
OakwoodTEXAS2251995
SadlerTEXAS1572024
ThorntonTEXAS1401984
CayugaTEXAS1222024
Arenosa CrkTEXAS1032023
LockhartTEXAS662024
CreedmoreTEXAS612014
Oak GroveTEXAS581999
LocoOKLAHOMA361985
Whit Mtn.TEXAS322019
MegargelTEXAS322024
Lone OakTEXAS292022
HenriettaTEXAS292022
CleburneTEXAS292024
DallasTEXAS282024
BrucevilleTEXAS252024
WalburgTEXAS222024
CampbelltonTEXAS212024
FanninTEXAS192023
Wolfe CityTEXAS181987
Oak Grove 2TEXAS182024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.