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Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Cattle-Egret In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauWetland birds

Western Cattle-Egret in Edwards Plateau has surged: up 525% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

+525%Since 1992TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
21YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Cattle-Egret has surged in Edwards Plateau: up 525% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

Western Cattle-Egret In Edwards Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Edwards Plateau is projected to fall about 71% by 2030 — from 5.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.00–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±217.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-71%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±217.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Edwards Plateau is projected to fall about 71% by 2030 — from 5.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.00–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±217.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.003.3
20271.30.003.3
20281.40.003.3
20291.40.003.4
20301.40.003.4

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Western Cattle-Egret in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Manor 2TEXAS802025
ManorTEXAS152024
BoerneTEXAS101995
GeorgetownTEXAS51982
UtopiaTEXAS42007
LeakeyTEXAS42002
AdamsvilleTEXAS21986
PidcokeTEXAS11994
LeanderTEXAS12005
MontellTEXAS12009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.