BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Cattle-Egret In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWetland birds

Western Cattle-Egret in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 154% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

+154%Since 1994TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Cattle-Egret has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 154% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

Western Cattle-Egret In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 138% by 2028 — from 0.10 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.00–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±633.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+138%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.25Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±633.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 138% by 2028 — from 0.10 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.00–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±633.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19802028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.230.000.64
20250.240.000.65
20260.240.000.65
20270.240.000.65
20280.250.000.66

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Western Cattle-Egret in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BroadlandSOUTH-DAKOTA222012
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA162011
Big StoneMINNESOTA62008
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA42014
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA42012
GettysburgSOUTH-DAKOTA42023
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA32022
FormanNORTH-DAKOTA22008
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA22005
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA22023
BraddockNORTH-DAKOTA22011
Crow CreekSOUTH-DAKOTA22023
KanawhaIOWA12004
TenneyMINNESOTA11980
DanzigNORTH-DAKOTA12000
MontpelierNORTH-DAKOTA12006
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA11993
Long LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.