BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Bluebird In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestForest birds

Western Bluebird in Northern Pacific Rainforest has fallen sharply: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-59%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Bluebird has fallen sharply in Northern Pacific Rainforest: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Western Bluebird In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Bluebird in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 32% by 2030 — from 0.40 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.00–0.77). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.27Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Bluebird in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 32% by 2030 — from 0.40 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.00–0.77). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.320.000.81
20270.300.000.80
20280.290.000.79
20290.280.000.78
20300.270.000.77

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Western Bluebird in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AlderpointCALIFORNIA112012
HoneydewCALIFORNIA92017
NavarroCALIFORNIA92009
Emigrant LkOREGON82001
Burnt RanchCALIFORNIA72013
ElktonOREGON62024
Emigrant Lake 2OREGON62025
SalemOREGON62025
MccloudCALIFORNIA52021
South Fork MtnCALIFORNIA52022
HullvilleCALIFORNIA42019
Days CreekOREGON42021
GarfieldOREGON42022
GreenOREGON42025
Harlan 2OREGON42016
Fish RockCALIFORNIA32012
Martins FyCALIFORNIA31981
LaytonvilleCALIFORNIA32025
KorbelCALIFORNIA32004
GazelleCALIFORNIA32021
Sams ValleyOREGON32025
Trask SummitOREGON31992
WaldportOREGON31999
RuchOREGON32023
Riley PeakOREGON32014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.