BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Bluebird In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertForest birds

Western Bluebird in Chihuahuan Desert has collapsed: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-80%Since 1972
10Routes In Region
48Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Western Bluebird has collapsed in Chihuahuan Desert: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Bluebird in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 135% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±569.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+135%Change by 2029
0.32Projected 2029 index
0.00–1.195% range
±569.3%Backtest error
19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.340.001.1
20260.340.001.1
20270.330.001.1
20280.330.001.1
20290.320.001.1

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Western Bluebird in Chihuahuan Desert.
ValentineTEXAS61986
PinonNEW-MEXICO32024
Bear MtnTEXAS22013
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO12019
RoswellNEW-MEXICO11972
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO12024
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO12017
QueenNEW-MEXICO12002
Ft. DavisTEXAS12008
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS12011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.