BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Bluebird In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalForest birds

Western Bluebird in Sierra Madre Occidental has held roughly steady: down 4% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-4%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Bluebird in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Western Bluebird In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Bluebird in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 4.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 1.9–7.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–7.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±51.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Bluebird in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 4.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 1.9–7.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.71.87.6
20264.71.87.6
20274.71.87.7
20284.81.97.7
20294.81.97.7

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Western Bluebird in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Happy JackARIZONA532024
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA202021
PinetopARIZONA182022
SprucedaleARIZONA182023
Aztec PeakARIZONA161978
ReserveNEW-MEXICO132023
WilliamsARIZONA122019
Forest LakesARIZONA122024
MaineARIZONA82024
FlagstaffARIZONA72022
Mormon LakeARIZONA71975
BlueARIZONA61991
Skull ValleyARIZONA62022
PatagoniaARIZONA41997
AlpineARIZONA42023
PrescottARIZONA22022
Peña BlancaARIZONA22001
Carr MtnARIZONA22019
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO22023
MagdalenaNEW-MEXICO22001
Clay SpringARIZONA12022
PortalARIZONA12024
Sunizona 2ARIZONA12002
RuckerARIZONA12009
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.